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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Aug 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 243 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Aug 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
30/1220Z from Region 3806 (S11E40). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(31 Aug, 01 Sep, 02 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 431 km/s at 30/0715Z. Total IMF reached 20
nT at 30/0603Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -14 nT at
30/0811Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (31 Aug, 01 Sep)
and quiet levels on day three (02 Sep). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (31 Aug, 01 Sep, 02 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 31 Aug to 02 Sep
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Aug 214 Predicted 31 Aug-02 Sep 215/215/220 90 Day Mean 30 Aug 210
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Aug 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Aug 009/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Aug-02 Sep 008/008-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Aug to 02 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 25% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.39 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/20 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
| November 2024 | 142.7 -23.8 |
| Last 30 days | 156.1 +4.7 |