Viewing archive of Saturday, 31 August 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Aug 31 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 244 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Aug 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
31/1302Z from Region 3806 (S11E34). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(01 Sep, 02 Sep, 03 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 416 km/s at 31/1719Z. Total IMF
reached 13 nT at 31/1902Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-11 nT at 31/1359Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 178 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (01 Sep) and quiet levels
on days two and three (02 Sep, 03 Sep). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (01 Sep, 02 Sep, 03 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Sep to 03 Sep
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Aug 232 Predicted 01 Sep-03 Sep 235/245/245 90 Day Mean 31 Aug 211
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Aug 016/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Aug 020/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Sep-03 Sep 007/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Sep to 03 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 15% | 15% |
All times in UTC
Latest news
Monday, 23 December 2024
M9.0 solar flare with earth-directed CME
Sunday, 8 December 2024
X2.2 solar flare, SDO outage
Thursday, 21 November 2024
Major far side eruption, S1 radiation storm
Latest forum messages
Deep flare net 7Our Sun can possibly produce a Superflare roughly every 100 years? 562024/12/23 AR13932 M8.9 & M4.1 associated CMEs 52Ask your obscure/"stupid" space weather questions. 139Coronal mass ejection impact and G4 geomagnetic storm 10 & 11 October 2024 937
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/12/08 | X2.2 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/12/26 | M7.34 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/12/17 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| November 2024 | 152.5 -13.9 |
| December 2024 | 122.8 -29.7 |
| Last 30 days | 124.4 -31.4 |