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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Sep 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 245 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Sep 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at 01/1322Z. There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (02 Sep, 03 Sep, 04 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 491 km/s at 01/0904Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 31/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 31/2110Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 361 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (02 Sep) and quiet levels on days two and three (03 Sep, 04 Sep). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (02 Sep, 03 Sep, 04 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Sep to 04 Sep
Class M60%60%60%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 Sep 226
  Predicted   02 Sep-04 Sep 230/240/245
  90 Day Mean        01 Sep 211

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 31 Aug  019/027
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 Sep  012/016
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 Sep-04 Sep  007/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Sep to 04 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%20%20%
Major-severe storm20%15%15%

All times in UTC

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