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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Oct 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 297 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Oct 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
23/0026Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(24 Oct, 25 Oct, 26 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 455 km/s at 23/1934Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 23/0326Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
23/1104Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 114 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (24 Oct, 26
Oct) and quiet to active levels on day two (25 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Oct to 26 Oct
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Oct 185 Predicted 24 Oct-26 Oct 185/190/190 90 Day Mean 23 Oct 220
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Oct 007/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Oct 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Oct-26 Oct 008/010-013/015-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Oct to 26 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 35% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/10/26 | X1.8 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/10/29 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/10/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| September 2024 | 141.4 -74.1 |
| October 2024 | 154.9 +13.5 |
| Last 30 days | 154.9 +5.4 |