Viewing archive of Saturday, 11 January 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Jan 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 11 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jan 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M0 event observed at
10/2246Z from Region 3947 (N13W37). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (12 Jan, 13 Jan, 14 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 573 km/s at 11/0845Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 11/1647Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
10/2113Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 256 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (12 Jan,
13 Jan, 14 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Jan to 14 Jan
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Jan 156 Predicted 12 Jan-14 Jan 150/145/145 90 Day Mean 11 Jan 198
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jan 011/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jan 007/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jan-14 Jan 007/006-006/006-009/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jan to 14 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/01/04 | X1.85 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/01/09 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/01/04 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| December 2024 | 154.5 +2 |
| January 2025 | 137.6 -16.9 |
| Last 30 days | 152.2 +35.1 |