Viewing archive of Friday, 20 December 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Dec 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 355 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Dec 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
20/1118Z from Region 3928 (S17E49). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(21 Dec, 22 Dec, 23 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 552 km/s at 20/1208Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 20/1632Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
20/1511Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 335 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (21 Dec, 23
Dec) and quiet levels on day two (22 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Dec to 23 Dec
| Class M | 65% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Dec 184 Predicted 21 Dec-23 Dec 180/175/175 90 Day Mean 20 Dec 201
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Dec 009/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Dec 009/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Dec-23 Dec 008/008-005/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Dec to 23 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 15% | 25% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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