Viewing archive of Tuesday, 31 December 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Dec 31 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 366 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Dec 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
30/2241Z from Region 3939 (S17E06). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one and two (01 Jan, 02 Jan)
and likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day three (03 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 489 km/s at 31/1716Z. Total IMF reached 27
nT at 31/1735Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -18 nT at
31/1859Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 506 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (01 Jan), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (02 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (03
Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and
two (01 Jan, 02 Jan) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
day three (03 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Jan to 03 Jan
| Class M | 80% | 80% | 70% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Proton | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Dec 218 Predicted 01 Jan-03 Jan 210/200/200 90 Day Mean 31 Dec 206
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Dec 007/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Dec 009/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jan-03 Jan 018/020-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jan to 03 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 25% | 15% |
All times in UTC
Latest news
Saturday, 4 January 2025
Sunspot region 3947, X-class solar flares
Monday, 30 December 2024
Two earth-directed coronal mass ejections
Sunday, 29 December 2024
Strong G3 geoamagnetic storm watch issued
Latest forum messages
AR 3947 122Unspecified geomagnetic activity 1817Unexplained proton activity 38Strong far side CME 354AR 3939 61
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/01/04 | X1.8 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/01/05 | M4.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/01/04 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| December 2024 | 154.5 +2 |
| January 2025 | 179.8 +25.3 |
| Last 30 days | 146.1 +17.3 |