Viewing archive of Wednesday, 4 December 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Dec 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 339 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Dec 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
04/1000Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (05 Dec, 06 Dec,
07 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 542 km/s at 04/1614Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at
03/2315Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
03/2231Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (05 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (06 Dec, 07 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Dec to 07 Dec
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Dec 175 Predicted 05 Dec-07 Dec 175/175/175 90 Day Mean 04 Dec 204
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Dec 010/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Dec 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Dec-07 Dec 006/005-006/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Dec to 07 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/01/04 | X1.85 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/01/06 | M4.9 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/01/04 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| December 2024 | 154.5 +2 |
| January 2025 | 179.4 +24.9 |
| Last 30 days | 150.6 +26 |