Viewing archive of Thursday, 5 December 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Dec 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 340 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Dec 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
05/1040Z from Region 3906 (S17W99). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 Dec, 07 Dec,
08 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 499 km/s at 05/0802Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
05/0423Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
05/0128Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (06 Dec,
07 Dec, 08 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Dec to 08 Dec
| Class M | 30% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Dec 175 Predicted 06 Dec-08 Dec 175/175/170 90 Day Mean 05 Dec 203
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Dec 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Dec 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Dec-08 Dec 006/008-008/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Dec to 08 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/12/08 | X2.2 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/12/15 | M3.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/12/17 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| November 2024 | 152.5 -13.9 |
| December 2024 | 99.5 -53 |
| Last 30 days | 117.6 -37.8 |