Viewing archive of Friday, 8 November 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Nov 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 313 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Nov 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
08/0301Z from Region 3883 (S06W20). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (09 Nov, 10
Nov, 11 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 660 km/s at 08/0745Z. Total IMF reached 16
nT at 08/1321Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at
08/1758Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 101 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (09 Nov) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (10 Nov, 11 Nov). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (09 Nov,
10 Nov, 11 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Nov to 11 Nov
| Class M | 85% | 85% | 85% |
| Class X | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Nov 231 Predicted 09 Nov-11 Nov 230/230/225 90 Day Mean 08 Nov 219
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Nov 007/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Nov 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Nov-11 Nov 017/020-015/020-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Nov to 11 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 60% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/12/08 | X2.2 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/12/22 | M1.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/12/17 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| November 2024 | 152.5 -13.9 |
| December 2024 | 103.3 -49.2 |
| Last 30 days | 115.4 -40.8 |