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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Nov 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 313 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Nov 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 08/0301Z from Region 3883 (S06W20). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (09 Nov, 10 Nov, 11 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 660 km/s at 08/0745Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 08/1321Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 08/1758Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 101 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (09 Nov) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (10 Nov, 11 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (09 Nov, 10 Nov, 11 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Nov to 11 Nov
Class M85%85%85%
Class X35%35%35%
Proton15%15%15%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 Nov 231
  Predicted   09 Nov-11 Nov 230/230/225
  90 Day Mean        08 Nov 219

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Nov  007/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Nov  008/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 09 Nov-11 Nov  017/020-015/020-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Nov to 11 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%40%30%
Minor storm20%20%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm25%25%30%
Major-severe storm60%60%40%

All times in UTC

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