Viewing archive of Thursday, 7 November 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Nov 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 312 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Nov 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
07/0754Z from Region 3889 (S10E66). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Nov, 09
Nov, 10 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 448 km/s at 07/1610Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 07/1755Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
07/1755Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1292 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (08 Nov, 10 Nov)
and unsettled to active levels on day two (09 Nov). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (08 Nov,
09 Nov, 10 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Nov to 10 Nov
| Class M | 85% | 85% | 80% |
| Class X | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Nov 239 Predicted 08 Nov-10 Nov 265/260/250 90 Day Mean 07 Nov 219
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Nov 009/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Nov 008/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Nov-10 Nov 015/016-017/020-017/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Nov to 10 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 40% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 45% | 55% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/12/08 | X2.2 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/12/22 | M1.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/12/17 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| November 2024 | 152.5 -13.9 |
| December 2024 | 103.3 -49.2 |
| Last 30 days | 115.4 -40.8 |