Viewing archive of Thursday, 7 November 2024

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Nov 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 312 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Nov 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 07/0754Z from Region 3889 (S10E66). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Nov, 09 Nov, 10 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 448 km/s at 07/1610Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 07/1755Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 07/1755Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1292 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (08 Nov, 10 Nov) and unsettled to active levels on day two (09 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (08 Nov, 09 Nov, 10 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Nov to 10 Nov
Class M85%85%80%
Class X35%35%35%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 Nov 239
  Predicted   08 Nov-10 Nov 265/260/250
  90 Day Mean        07 Nov 219

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 06 Nov  009/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 07 Nov  008/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 08 Nov-10 Nov  015/016-017/020-017/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Nov to 10 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%40%15%
Minor storm10%15%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm25%30%25%
Major-severe storm45%55%25%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Norilsk
The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (15.98nT), the direction is North (7.17nT).
The maximum X-ray flux of the past two hours is:
C5.48

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