Viewing archive of Friday, 6 December 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Dec 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 341 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Dec 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
06/0920Z from Region 3917 (S08E37). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Dec, 08 Dec,
09 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 451 km/s at 06/0049Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 06/0150Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
06/0236Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 149 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (07 Dec, 08 Dec)
and quiet levels on day three (09 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Dec to 09 Dec
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Dec 178 Predicted 07 Dec-09 Dec 175/170/170 90 Day Mean 06 Dec 202
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Dec 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Dec 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Dec-09 Dec 008/008-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Dec to 09 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/12/08 | X2.2 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/12/15 | M3.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/12/17 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| November 2024 | 152.5 -13.9 |
| December 2024 | 99.5 -53 |
| Last 30 days | 117.6 -37.8 |