Viewing archive of Tuesday, 3 December 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Dec 03 2235 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 337 Issued at 2231Z on 03 Dec 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
03/0300Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 Dec, 05 Dec,
06 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 460 km/s at 03/1851Z. Total IMF reached 14
nT at 03/0047Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
03/1711Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 103 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (04 Dec, 05 Dec, 06
Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Dec to 05 Dec
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Dec 185 Predicted 04 Dec-06 Dec 180/170/170 90 Day Mean 03 Dec 205
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Dec 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Dec 013/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Dec-06 Dec 005/005-006/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Dec to 05 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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Strong far side CME 323Filaments and prominences 595Incoming & Unnumbered Active Regions 1351Power transmission for all of us. And why I believe we are better prepared than ever for major solar events 7Unspecified geomagnetic activity 1747
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/12/08 | X2.2 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/12/22 | M1.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/12/17 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| November 2024 | 152.5 -13.9 |
| December 2024 | 103.3 -49.2 |
| Last 30 days | 115.4 -40.8 |