Viewing archive of Monday, 13 January 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Jan 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 13 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jan 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
13/0215Z from Region 3947 (N11W77). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one and two (14 Jan, 15 Jan) and expected to be low with a chance
for M-class flares on day three (16 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 508 km/s at 13/1524Z. Total IMF reached 14
nT at 13/0546Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
13/0014Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 321 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (14 Jan, 15 Jan)
and quiet levels on day three (16 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Jan to 16 Jan
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 35% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Jan 160 Predicted 14 Jan-16 Jan 165/160/160 90 Day Mean 13 Jan 198
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jan 006/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jan 010/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jan-16 Jan 007/008-009/010-007/006
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jan to 16 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 30% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/12/08 | X1.1 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/12/12 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/12/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| November 2025 | 91.8 -22.8 |
| December 2025 | 128 +36.2 |
| Last 30 days | 108.4 +15.8 |