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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Feb 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 40 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Feb 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
09/0101Z from Region 3977 (N18W96). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (10 Feb,
11 Feb) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day
three (12 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 585 km/s at 09/2053Z. Total IMF
reached 22 nT at 09/1138Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-16 nT at 09/1308Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 336 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (10 Feb), unsettled
to active levels on day two (11 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day
three (12 Feb). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one and two (10 Feb, 11 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Feb to 12 Feb
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Feb 163 Predicted 10 Feb-12 Feb 165/170/175 90 Day Mean 09 Feb 191
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Feb 009/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Feb 012/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Feb-12 Feb 020/025-015/018-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Feb to 12 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 60% | 55% |
All times in UTC
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