Viewing archive of Wednesday, 15 January 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Jan 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 15 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jan 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
III. Event Probabilities 16 Jan to 18 Jan
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Jan 174 Predicted 16 Jan-18 Jan 180/190/190 90 Day Mean 15 Jan 198
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jan 010/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jan 013/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jan-18 Jan 007/008-007/008-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jan to 18 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 25% | 30% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Oulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, UtsjokiKirkenes, Tromsø
Murmansk
Kiruna, Luleå
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
TórshavnKuopio
Bergen, Trondheim
Arkhangelsk, Vorkuta
Sundsvall, Umeå
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future
TamperePetrozavodsk
Latest news
Coronal hole faces Earth
Strong G3 geomagnetic storm watch for 23 March
Coronal hole faces Earth
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Latest alerts
20:45 UTC - Geomagnetic activity
Active geomagnetic conditions (Kp4) Threshold Reached: 20:19 UTC
13:00 UTC - Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 25/03/2025 12:36 UTC Estimated Velocity: 516km/sec.
Monday, 24 March 2025
Coronal hole faces Earth
The anticipated strong G3 geomagnetic storm watch never materialized as the coronal mass ejection that was supposed to arrive early yesterday didn't arrive until today just past midnight UTC. The impact was very lackluster with the Bt (total strength of the IMF) increasing to a moderate 15nT at best and the solar wind speed reaching just 420km/s. A far cry from the anticipated 700 to 800km/s. That once again goes to show how hard it is to forecast space weather events and any resulting geomagnetic conditions. We remain under the influence of the CME and high latitude sky watchers should remain alert for some nice aurora displays but middle latitude sky watchers will probably have to wait for the next opportunity.
13:55 UTC - Coronal hole
A transequatorial coronal hole is facing Earth. Enhanced solar wind could arrive in ~3 days
02:45 UTC - Geomagnetic activity
Active geomagnetic conditions (Kp4) Threshold Reached: 02:33 UTC
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/02/23 | X2.0 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/03/21 | M1.2 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/03/22 | Kp6- (G2) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| February 2025 | 154.6 +17.6 |
| March 2025 | 138.3 -16.4 |
| Last 30 days | 136.1 -18.1 |