Viewing archive of Wednesday, 15 January 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Jan 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 15 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jan 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
15/0856Z from Region 3961 (S09E58). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (16 Jan, 17 Jan,
18 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 571 km/s at 15/0104Z. Total IMF
reached 9 nT at 15/1039Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-8 nT at 15/1515Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 900 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (16 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (17 Jan, 18 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Jan to 18 Jan
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Jan 174 Predicted 16 Jan-18 Jan 180/190/190 90 Day Mean 15 Jan 198
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jan 010/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jan 013/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jan-18 Jan 007/008-007/008-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jan to 18 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 25% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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