Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Friday, 31 January 2025

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Jan 31 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 31 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jan 2025

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at 31/1406Z from Region 3976 (N13E28). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (01 Feb, 02 Feb, 03 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 385 km/s at 31/2024Z. Total IMF reached 17 nT at 31/1734Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 31/0926Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 134 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (01 Feb), quiet to active levels on day two (02 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (03 Feb). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (01 Feb, 02 Feb, 03 Feb).

III. Event Probabilities 01 Feb to 03 Feb

Class M	55%	60%	60%
Class X	15%	15%	15%
Proton	10%	10%	10%
PCAF	green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       31 Jan 207
  Predicted   01 Feb-03 Feb 210/215/220
  90 Day Mean        31 Jan 195

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jan  004/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 31 Jan  009/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Feb-03 Feb  017/024-011/013-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Feb to 03 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	40%	30%	15%
Minor storm	25%	10%	05%
Major-severe storm	05%	01%	01%

B. High Latitudes
Active	10%	15%	15%
Minor storm	25%	30%	25%
Major-severe storm	60%	40%	25%

All times in UTC

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The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (15.85nT), the direction is North (12.24nT).

The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-55nT)

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