Viewing archive of Thursday, 27 March 2025

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Mar 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 86 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Mar 2025

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Mar, 29 Mar, 30 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at active to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 1025 km/s at 27/1654Z. Total IMF reached 20 nT at 26/2340Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -15 nT at 26/2154Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 416 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active levels on day one (28 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (29 Mar, 30 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Mar to 30 Mar
Class M25%25%25%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 Mar 153
  Predicted   28 Mar-30 Mar 155/150/145
  90 Day Mean        27 Mar 182

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 26 Mar  026/048
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 27 Mar  023/034
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 28 Mar-30 Mar  018/025-013/015-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Mar to 30 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%20%10%
Minor storm20%05%01%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm25%25%20%
Major-severe storm50%25%20%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a high possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Fairbanks, AK

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Gillam, MB, Whitehorse, YT, Yellowknife, NT
Anchorage, AK, Juneau, AK

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Edmonton, AB, Saskatoon, SK
The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (521.4 km/sec.)
The direction of the interplanetary magnetic field is slightly South (-7.12nT).

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