Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Friday, 28 February 2025

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Feb 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 59 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Feb 2025

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at 27/2324Z from Region 3998 (S14W84). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Mar, 02 Mar, 03 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

The geomagnetic field has been at active to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 847 km/s at 28/1828Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 28/0344Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 27/2311Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 489 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (01 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (02 Mar, 03 Mar).

III. Event Probabilities 01 Mar to 03 Mar

Class M	30%	30%	30%
Class X	05%	05%	05%
Proton	05%	05%	05%
PCAF	green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       28 Feb 155
  Predicted   01 Mar-03 Mar 155/155/155
  90 Day Mean        28 Feb 191

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 27 Feb  024/029
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 28 Feb  021/026
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Mar-03 Mar  014/015-007/010-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Mar to 03 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	45%	20%	15%
Minor storm	25%	05%	05%
Major-severe storm	05%	01%	01%

B. High Latitudes
Active	10%	15%	15%
Minor storm	25%	30%	25%
Major-severe storm	65%	30%	25%

All times in UTC

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The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (15.13nT), the direction is North (11.76nT).

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