Incoming coronal mass ejection?
Thursday, 22 October 2015 17:33 UTC
Sunspot region 2434 produced a long duration C4.4 solar flare that peaked today at 03:40 UTC. This solar flare was accompanied by a coronal mass ejection that is propagating mostly southwest of the Sun-Earth line. Sharp eyes can discover a very faint full halo outline if you watch the LASCO coronagraph imagery meaning an earth-directed component can not be excluded.
Images: LASCO C2 and C3 coronagraph imagery showing the coronal mass ejection from today's C4.4 solar flare.
This coronal mass ejection launched at a speed of about 800km/s which gives a possible arrival time somewhere during the first half of October 24. A shock in the solar wind is possible but we doubt there will be any significant (G1 or greater) geomagnetic disturbances from this event. Nonetheless it is something to watch out for in the days ahead, you never know with CMEs!
Note that the low energy protons and electrons as measured by ACE EPAM also started to increase following the event which is also a possible sign that there might be some ejecta on the Sun-Earth line.
Image: ACE EPAM data at 22-10-2015 17:35 UTC.
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Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Whitehorse, YT, Yellowknife, NTAnchorage, AK, Fairbanks, AK, Utqiagvik, AK
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Monday, 24 March 2025
Coronal hole faces Earth
The anticipated strong G3 geomagnetic storm watch never materialized as the coronal mass ejection that was supposed to arrive early yesterday didn't arrive until today just past midnight UTC. The impact was very lackluster with the Bt (total strength of the IMF) increasing to a moderate 15nT at best and the solar wind speed reaching just 420km/s. A far cry from the anticipated 700 to 800km/s. That once again goes to show how hard it is to forecast space weather events and any resulting geomagnetic conditions. We remain under the influence of the CME and high latitude sky watchers should remain alert for some nice aurora displays but middle latitude sky watchers will probably have to wait for the next opportunity.
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A transequatorial coronal hole is facing Earth. Enhanced solar wind could arrive in ~3 days
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