M1 solar flare, G2 storm watch
Monday, 31 January 2022 14:24 UTC
Sunspot region 2936 produced an M1.1 solar flare which peaked at 23:32 UTC back on Saturday, 29 January. This large sunspot region was already producing numerous C-class solar flare at the time and developed a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic layout. This resulted in a moderate M-class eruption which launched a coronal mass ejection into space. Sunspot region 2936 has quieted down significantly since this eruption and while it remains a large sunspot region, it only has a Beta magnetic layout making more significant flares unlikely.
Coronal mass ejection and G2 storm watch
The M1.1 solar flare did indeed launch a slow asymmetrical full halo coronal mass ejection into space as seen by the SOHO spacecraft watching from Earth's point of view. The bulk of this plasma cloud is heading mostly north-east but we do expect a portion of the cloud to impact our planet.
Looking at the ENLIL solar wind model we see an expected arrival time early on 2 February which is a fair assumption considering the fairly slow speed of this plasma cloud. The NOAA SWPC has issued a moderate G2 (Kp6) geomagnetic storm watch for 2 February. We suspect this might be a tad optimistic due to the coronal mass ejection being fairly slow and not aimed towards Earth head-on but sky watchers should still be on alert in the coming days.
Sunspot region 2936 produced an M1.1 solar flare which peaked at 23:32 UTC. LASCO shows a slow asymmetrical full halo coronal mass ejection leaving the Sun. The bulk is heading north-east but we do expect this cloud to impact Earth in a few days. More info later. pic.twitter.com/WqMIWHNUAY
— SpaceWeatherLive (@_SpaceWeather_) January 30, 2022
The M1 CME from 29 Jan is predicted to arrive at Earth early on 2 Feb according to the ENLIL model.
— SpaceWeatherLive (@_SpaceWeather_) January 31, 2022
Moderate G2 (Kp6) storm conditions are possible according to the NOAA SWPC. We suspect this might be a tad optimistic but sky watchers should be on alert in the coming days. pic.twitter.com/tIUJsK3WYb
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