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Rapporto attività solare
Ogni brillamento solare menzionato nel rapporto ha un fattore di scala, applicato dal Centro di Predizione Meteorologica Spaziale (SWPC). A causa del fattore di scala del SWPC, i brillamenti solari sono segnalati come ridotti del 42%, rispetto ai dati di qualità scientifica. Il fattore di scala è stato rimosso dai nostri dati archiviati sui brillamenti solari, per riflettere le unità fisiche reali.
Rapporto dell'Attività Geofisica Solare 2001 Sep 28 2200 UTC
Preparati dal SWPC della NOAA© ed elaborati da SpaceWeatherLive.comRapporto Congiunto USAF/NOAA dell'Attività Solare e Geofisica
SDF Numero 271 Emesso alle 2200Z il Sep 28 2001
IA. Analisi delle Regioni Solari Attive e Attività dalle 2100Z-27 alle 2100Z-28
Solar activity has been moderate. There were three
M-class events observed during the past 24 hours. The first of these
was an M3/2n from Region 9636 (N14E13) at 0830 UTC, which was
associated with type II and type IV sweeps and a partial halo CME
that appeared to be centered over the east limb. The second was an
M2/1n from Region 9628 (S18W48) at 1014 UTC which was associated
with a CME that was centered over the southwest limb. The 3rd was an
M1/1f from Region 9637 (S15E18) at 1926 UTC. Regions 9628 and 9632
(S18W33) continue to dominate the disk in sunspot area and still
maintain magnetic delta configurations. 9628 is showing some growth
in the northern portion of the region. Region 9632 has been
remarkably quiet, but continues to show a strong delta along an
East-West inversion line. Region 9636 seems to be decaying slightly,
but has a fairly complicated magnetic structure (gamma magnetic
class).
IB. Previsione dell'Attività Solare
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Regions 9636, 9637, 9632 and 9628 all are capable
of producing additional M-class level activity. Regions 9628 and
9632 have a fair chance for producing an isolated major flare event
sometime during the next three days.
IIA. Sommario dell'Attività Geofisica dalle 2100Z-27 alle 2100Z-28
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24
hours. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 24/1215
UTC continues in progress as the flux levels declined slowly. The
flux level at forecast issue time was 94 pfu. The greater than 2 MeV
electrons attained high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Previsione dell'Attività Geofisica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to slightly active during the next 48
hours. The influence of a favorably positioned coronal hole is
expected to increase activity levels slightly. In addition, there is
a possibility for some active conditions on the third day as the
result of a glancing blow from either of today's CME events. The
greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end sometime in the
next 24-36 hours.
III. Probabilità dell'Evento dalle Sep del 29 alle Oct del 01
Classe M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
Classe X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
Protone | 99% | 30% | 30% |
PCAF | in progress
|
IV. Flusso di 10.7 cm di Penticton
Osservato 28 Sep 266
Previsto 29 Sep-01 Oct 260/260/255
Media di 90 Giorni 28 Sep 174
V. Indici Geomagnetici A
Osservato Afr/Ap 27 Sep 009/010
Stimato Afr/Ap 28 Sep 013/015
Previsto Afr/Ap 29 Sep-01 Oct 015/015-015/018-020/018
VI. Probabilità dell'Attività Geomagnetica dal 29 Sep al 01 Oct
A. Latitudini Medie |
Attivo | 25% | 25% | 20% |
Tempesta minore | 20% | 20% | 30% |
Tempesta maggiore-grave | 20% | 20% | 25% |
B. Latitudini Alte |
Attivo | 30% | 30% | 25% |
Tempesta minore | 25% | 25% | 35% |
Tempesta maggiore-grave | 20% | 20% | 30% |
Tutti gli orari in UTC
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