Viewing archive of Friday, 7 June 1996

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1996 Jun 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 159 Issued at 2200Z on 07 JUN 1996

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 7968 (N02W15), THE ONLY ACTIVE REGION CURRENTLY ON THE VISIBLE DISK, HAS GROWN SIGNIFICANTLY IN BOTH SIZE AND NUMBER OF SPOTS SINCE YESTERDAY. THIS REGION HAS PRODUCED THREE B-CLASS FLARES IN THE LAST 24 HOURS, ONE AT 0956Z OPTICALLY CORRELATED AS A SUB- FLARE. THE LARGE TWELVE DEGREE FILAMENT LOCATED AT N06E24 INCREASED IN WIDTH, LENGTH, AND DENSITY SINCE YESTERDAY, BUT REMAINS RELATIVELY MOTIONLESS.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW, WITH A 60% CHANCE FOR A C-CLASS EVENT AND 10% CHANCE OF AN M-CLASS EVENT GENERATED FROM REGION 7968 DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET LEVELS AT ALL LATITUDES FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. YESTERDAY'S ISOLATED ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS IS BELIEVED TO BE THE RESULT OF A DISAPPEARING FILAMENT EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH AND INCREASED CHANCE OF ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS FOR DAYS TWO AND THREE.
III. Event Probabilities 08 JUN to 10 JUN
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 JUN  073
  Predicted   08 JUN-10 JUN  072/072/070
  90 Day Mean        07 JUN  070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 06 JUN  016/018
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 JUN  008/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 JUN-10 JUN  008/008-010/008-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 JUN to 10 JUN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%20%
Minor storm10%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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