Viewing archive of Tuesday, 27 August 1996

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1996 Aug 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 240 Issued at 2200Z on 27 AUG 1996

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 7986 (S12E25) PRODUCED TWO ADDITIONAL OPTICALLY CORRELATED B-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS, THE LARGEST A B5/SF AT 26/2320Z. THE REGION HAS STABILIZED AND IS CURRENTLY A THREE SPOT HSX GROUP.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW, WITH A CONTINUED 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED C-CLASS EVENTS FROM REGION 7986 THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS AT ALL LATITUDES FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AISOLATED PERIO DS OF MINOR/MAJOR STORMING ON DAY THREE, DUE TO THE ROTATION OF A LARGE, FAVORABLY POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE.
III. Event Probabilities 28 AUG to 30 AUG
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 AUG  074
  Predicted   28 AUG-30 AUG  075/075/075
  90 Day Mean        27 AUG  071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 26 AUG  013/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 AUG  015/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 AUG-30 AUG  015/015-020/020-020/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 AUG to 30 AUG
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%40%40%
Minor storm10%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%10%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%35%35%
Minor storm10%20%20%
Major-severe storm05%15%15%

All times in UTC

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