Viewing archive of Wednesday, 31 July 1996
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1996 Jul 31 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 213 Issued at 2200Z on 31 JUL 1996IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW. REGION 7981
(S09E21) PRODUCED SEVERAL SMALL B-CLASS SUBFLARES. OVERALL, THIS
REGION REMAINED STABLE. IN RECENT EUV IMAGES, A CORONAL
HOLE-LIKE FEATURE IS VISIBLE JUST TO THE EAST OF REGION 7981.
THIS FEATURE IS EXCEPTIONALLY DARK.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE
AT A VERY LOW LEVEL. REGION 7981 RETAINS THE CAPABILITY OF
PRODUCING AN ISOLATED C-CLASS FLARE.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. BOTH MID AND HIGH
LATITUDES EXPERIENCED INTERMITTENT ACTIVE CONDITIONS. THERE
IS NO OBVIOUS SOURCE FOR THIS DISTURBANCE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD
SHOULD BE QUIET TO ACTIVE ON 01-02 AUG. QUIET TO UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR 03 AUG.
III. Event Probabilities 01 AUG to 03 AUG
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 JUL 080 Predicted 01 AUG-03 AUG 080/080/080 90 Day Mean 31 JUL 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 30 JUL 009/009 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 31 JUL 015/018 PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 AUG-03 AUG 012/015-008/015-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 AUG to 03 AUG
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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