Viewing archive of Thursday, 29 August 1996

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1996 Aug 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 242 Issued at 2200Z on 29 AUG 1996

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 7986 (S12W00) HAS EVOLVED INTO A TEN SPOT CSO GROUP, AND HAS REMAINED QUIET SINCE GENERATING YESTERDAY'S C1/SF FLARE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW, WITH A DECREASED 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED C-CLASS X-RAY EVENT FROM REGION 7986.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT MOSTLY UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS AT MIDDLE LATITUDES, AND UNSETTLED TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS AT HIGH LATITUDES DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS INCREASED ACTIVITY IS BELIEVED TOL HOLE. SOLAR WIND DATA RECEIVE D TODAY FROM THE WIND SPACECRAFT REVEALED VELOCITIES IN EXCESS OF 600 KM/S AND DENSITIES IN THE 4-6 P/CC RANGE. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE IN THE MODERATE TO HIGH RANGE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH A HIGH PROBABILITY FOR ISOLATED PERIODS OF MINOR AND MAJOR STORMING, AND THEN REVERTING BACK TO MOSTLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ON DAYS TWO AND THREE.
III. Event Probabilities 30 AUG to 01 SEP
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 AUG  074
  Predicted   30 AUG-01 SEP  075/074/074
  90 Day Mean        29 AUG  071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED  AFR/AP 28 AUG  017/014
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 AUG  023/030
PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 AUG-01 SEP  020/020-015/020-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 AUG to 01 SEP
A. Middle Latitudes
Active60%30%20%
Minor storm25%15%10%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active60%30%20%
Minor storm30%15%10%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%

All times in UTC

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