Viewing archive of Wednesday, 13 November 1996
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1996 Nov 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 318 Issued at 2200Z on 13 NOV 1996IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NO FLARES OCCURRED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED
LEVELS FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE MOST DISTURBED PERIOD
OCCURRED FROM 13/1915-2015Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED BECOMING UNSETTLED TO
ACTIVE DUE TO A RECURRENT DISTURBANCE.
III. Event Probabilities 14 NOV to 16 NOV
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 NOV 073 Predicted 14 NOV-16 NOV 074/074/074 90 Day Mean 13 NOV 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 NOV 009/008 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 NOV 007/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 NOV-16 NOV 010/010-015/025-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 NOV to 16 NOV
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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