Viewing archive of Wednesday, 11 December 1996
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1996 Dec 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 346 Issued at 2200Z on 11 DEC 1996IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THERE WAS AN UNCORRELATED
C1 X-RAY BURST AT 11/1821Z. REGION 8003 (S29W31) CONTINUES TO GROW
SLOWLY AND IS NOW A CAO SPOT GROUP, BUT RELATIVELY QUIET. NEW REGION
8004 (N05E70), AN HSX SPOT, WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTEDITY.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. ACTIVITY WAS MOST LIKELY
THE RESULT OF A WELL PLACED CORONAL HOLE THAT IS MOVING AWAY FROM
ITS GEOEFFECTIVE POSITION. PRELIMINARY SOLAR WIND DATA INDICATE WE
ARE NOW MOVING OUT OF THE LOW-DENSITY, HIGH-SPEED CORONAL HOLE
STREAM.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
ACTIVE LEVELS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AT HIGH LATITUDES FOR THE NEXT
12-24 HOURS.
III. Event Probabilities 12 DEC to 14 DEC
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 DEC 078 Predicted 12 DEC-14 DEC 080/082/082 90 Day Mean 11 DEC 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 DEC 021/018 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 DEC 013/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 DEC-14 DEC 010/010-005/008-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 DEC to 14 DEC
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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