Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Wednesday, 29 January 1997

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Jan 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 029 Issued at 2200Z on 29 JAN 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NEW REGION 8015 (N07E33), A SIX SPOT 'BXO' GROUP, WAS NUMBERED TODAY, AND IT PRODUCED THREE B-CLASS EVENTS, THE LARGEST AN OPTICALLY CORRELATED B5.8 FLARE AT 1917Z. REGION 8014 (S15W04) HAS DECAYED INTO A SPOTLESS PLAGE.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY LOW.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS, WITH CONDITIONS PREDOMINATELY QUIET SINCE 29/0900Z. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS EXCEEDED VERY HIGH LEVELS FOR THE FIRST TIME AT 29/1752Z, AND HAVE REMAINED IN THE VERY HIGH RANGE SINCE 29/1905Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS, WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED PERIODS OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

III. Event Probabilities 30 JAN to 01 FEB

Class M	01%	01%	01%
Class X	01%	01%	01%
Proton	01%	01%	01%
PCAF	GREEN

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       29 JAN 075
  Predicted   30 JAN-01 FEB  074/074/074
  90 Day Mean        29 JAN 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 JAN  020/021
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 JAN  007/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 JAN-01 FEB  005/008-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 JAN to 01 FEB

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	15%	15%	15%
Minor storm	05%	05%	05%
Major-severe storm	01%	01%	01%

B. High Latitudes
Active	15%	15%	15%
Minor storm	10%	10%	10%
Major-severe storm	01%	01%	01%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

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The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (10.86nT), the direction is North (1.1nT).

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