Viewing archive of Friday, 21 February 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Feb 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 052 Issued at 2200Z on 21 FEB 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. A SINGLE B-CLASS X-RAY
EVENT OCCURRED AT 21/1019Z. THE VISIBLE DISK IS CURRENTLY SPOTLESS
AND ESSENTIALLY FEATURELESS.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE PAST
24 HOURS. MIDDLE LATITUDES EXPERIENCED A SINGLE PERIOD OF ACTIVE
CONDITIONS DURING THE INTERVAL 21/0900-1200Z, WHILE HIGH LATITUDES
RECORDED ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS DURING THE INTERVAL
21/0900-1500Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS, WITH AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS ON DAYS TWO AND
THREE DUE TO RECURRENT ACTIVITY.
III. Event Probabilities 22 FEB to 24 FEB
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 FEB 073 Predicted 22 FEB-24 FEB 073/073/073 90 Day Mean 21 FEB 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 20 FEB 004/004 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 21 FEB 010/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 22 FEB-24 FEB 010/010-015/010-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 FEB to 24 FEB
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
VorkutaCurrent data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future
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