Viewing archive of Friday, 28 February 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Feb 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 059 Issued at 2200Z on 28 FEB 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW. THE DISK REMAINED
SPOTLESS.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS UNSETTLED TO SEVERE STORM. ENERGETIC
ELECTRON FLUXES REACHED HIGH LEVELS NEAR 28/1356Z AND REACHED VERY
HIGH LEVELS NEAR 28/2000Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE TOMORROW AND QUIET TO UNSETTLED ON
THE SECOND AND THIRD DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 01 MAR to 03 MAR
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 FEB 073 Predicted 01 MAR-03 MAR 074/074/074 90 Day Mean 28 FEB 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 FEB 022/020 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 FEB 027/033 PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 MAR-03 MAR 020/018-015/010-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 MAR to 03 MAR
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Gillam, MB, Whitehorse, YT, Yellowknife, NTFairbanks, AK
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