Viewing archive of Tuesday, 15 April 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Apr 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 105 Issued at 2200Z on 15 APR 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8032 (S22E06) CONTINUED
TO GROW AND PRODUCED A C1/1N FLARE WITH AN ASSOCIATED TYPE II SWEEP.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. REGION 8032 IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE OCCASSIONAL C-CLASS
FLARES.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
THE GOEMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND UNSETTLED ON DAY
THREE.
III. Event Probabilities 16 APR to 18 APR
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 APR 079 Predicted 16 APR-18 APR 080/080/078 90 Day Mean 15 APR 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 APR 005/004 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 APR 003/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 APR-18 APR 005/005-005/008-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 APR to 18 APR
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
TórshavnOulu, Rovaniemi, Kuopio, Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Kirkenes, Tromsø, Trondheim
Arkhangelsk, Murmansk
Kiruna, Luleå, Sundsvall, Umeå
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