Viewing archive of Wednesday, 14 May 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 May 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 134 Issued at 2200Z on 14 MAY 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. ONLY SMALL B-CLASS X-RAY
FLARES OCCURRED AND NO OPTICAL FLARES WERE REPORTED. REGION 8038
(N20W44) REMAINS THE ONLY SUNSPOT GROUP ON THE DISK.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. AN ISOLATED C-CLASS FLARE IS POSSIBLE IN REGION 8038.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME ACTIVE WITH POSSIBLE STORM PERIODS ON 15 MAY IN
RESPONSE TO THE CME EVENT DETECTED ON 12 MAY.
III. Event Probabilities 15 MAY to 17 MAY
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 MAY 074 Predicted 15 MAY-17 MAY 072/072/070 90 Day Mean 14 MAY 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 MAY 003/003 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 MAY 005/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 MAY-17 MAY 025/025-015/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 MAY to 17 MAY
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 40% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 15% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 40% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 15% | 05% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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