Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Monday, 19 May 1997

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 May 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 139 Issued at 2200Z on 19 MAY 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THERE WAS NO SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY. NEW REGIONS 8043 (N28W40), A GROWING BXO SPOT GROUP, AND 8044 (S35E77), AN HAX SPOT JUST COMING ONTO THE VISIBLE DISK, WERE NUMBERED TODAY. REGION 8040 (N05E13) CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT SLOW GROWTH.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY LOW FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED C-CLASS FLARE ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE FROM REGIONS 8040, 8043 AND 8044 AS THEY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

III. Event Probabilities 20 MAY to 22 MAY

Class M	01%	01%	01%
Class X	01%	01%	01%
Proton	01%	01%	01%
PCAF	GREEN

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       19 MAY 074
  Predicted   20 MAY-22 MAY  074/074/074
  90 Day Mean        19 MAY 074

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 MAY  007/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 MAY  004/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 MAY-22 MAY  005/008-005/008-005/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 MAY to 22 MAY

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	05%	05%	05%
Minor storm	01%	01%	01%
Major-severe storm	01%	01%	01%

B. High Latitudes
Active	10%	10%	05%
Minor storm	05%	05%	01%
Major-severe storm	01%	01%	01%

All times in UTC

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