Viewing archive of Thursday, 25 September 1997

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Sep 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 268 Issued at 2200Z on 25 SEP 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8088 (S28W02) PRODUCED A C7/1N FLARE AT 25/1149Z WITH MINOR RADIO BURSTS. THE GROWTH IN THIS REGION IS ABATING WITH ONLY A 10 PERCENT INCREASE OBSERVED DURING THE PERIOD. MIXED MAGNETIC POLARITIES EXIST IN THE LEADER AND TRAILER OF THIS REGION.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO BE PRIMARILY LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT FROM REGION 8088 IS POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE QUIET UNTIL LATE ON 26 SEP WHEN A DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN. ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPERIENCED ON 27-28 SEP IN RESPONSE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS OBSERVED ON 23-24 SEP. ISOLATED PERIODS OF MAJOR STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME.
III. Event Probabilities 26 SEP to 28 SEP
Class M35%35%35%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 SEP 089
  Predicted   26 SEP-28 SEP  089/088/089
  90 Day Mean        25 SEP 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 24 SEP  005/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 25 SEP  003/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 26 SEP-28 SEP  018/018-040/040-020/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 SEP to 28 SEP
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%30%40%
Minor storm15%30%15%
Major-severe storm05%15%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%30%40%
Minor storm20%35%20%
Major-severe storm10%15%10%

All times in UTC

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