Viewing archive of Wednesday, 22 October 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Oct 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
********** CORRECTED COPY ********** SDF Number 295 Issued at 2200Z on 22 OCT 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8097 (N16W14) IS
CURRENTLY THE ONLY SPOTTED REGION ON THE VISIBLE DISK AND HAS
REMAINED STABLE SINCE YESTERDAY'S C3/SF EVENT. A NEW REGION MAY
BE EMERGING NEAR S24E30.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE PAST 24
HOURS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TWO PERIODS OF UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS RECORDED AT FREDERICKSBURG DURING THE INTERVAL
22/0000-0600Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. EXPECT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ON DAY THREE DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF
YESTERDAY'S LONG DURATION C3/SF AND ASSOCIATED HALO CME EVENT.
III. Event Probabilities 23 OCT to 25 OCT
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 OCT 081 Predicted 23 OCT-25 OCT 081/079/078 90 Day Mean 22 OCT 086
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 OCT 003/004 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 OCT 006/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 OCT-25 OCT 005/008-015/020-025/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 OCT to 25 OCT
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Iqaluit, NUNuuk
Reykjavik
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