Viewing archive of Tuesday, 21 October 1997

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Oct 21 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 294 Issued at 2200Z on 21 OCT 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8097 (N16W01), A 4-SPOT 'CRO' BETA GROUP, GENERATED A LONG DURATION C3/SF FLARE WITH NUMEROUS ERUPTIVE CENTERS THAT PEAKED AT 21/1754Z. THE FLARE BEGAN AFTER A FILAMENT RUNNING EAST-WEST THROUGH THE REGION BECAME ACTIVE AND DISAPPEARED. EARLIER IN THE REPORTING PERIOD (20/2349Z-21/0056Z), A 22-DEGREE FILAMENT DISAPPEARED AT LOCATION S33E59 IN CONJUNCTION WITH A LONG DURATION B3 X-RAY EVENT AND MINOR TYPE II SHOCK. DURING THIS SAME TIMEFRAME, SOHO-LASCO/EIT RECORDED A PARTIAL HALO CORONAL MASS EJECTION THAT BEGAN AS A BRIGHT FRONT IN THE SOUTHEAST, AND WAS FOLLOWED BY A WEAKER FRONT TO THE WEST AND NORTH.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET, WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS, FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THIS FORECAST MAY BE ALTERED FOLLOWING FURTHER ANALYSIS OF TODAY'S C3 X-RAY EVENT.
III. Event Probabilities 22 OCT to 24 OCT
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 OCT 085
  Predicted   22 OCT-24 OCT  083/083/083
  90 Day Mean        21 OCT 086
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 20 OCT  005/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 21 OCT  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 22 OCT-24 OCT  005/005-005/005-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 OCT to 24 OCT
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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