Viewing archive of Monday, 17 November 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Nov 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 321 Issued at 2200Z on 17 NOV 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8108 (N21E29) GREW IN
WHITE LIGHT AND H-ALPHA, PRODUCING OCCASIONAL SMALL FLARES IN THE
PROCESS. ITS LARGEST EVENT WAS A C8/0F AT 1510Z, WITH MODEST RADIO
BURSTS ACROSS THE SPECTRUM. THE REGION NOW IS CLASSIFIED AS A
BETA-GAMMA DELTA, HAVING MIXED POLARITIES IN THE LARGE LEADER
SUNSPOT. ELSEWHERE, THE REMAINDER OF THE DISK AND LIMBS WERE QUIET.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGION 8108 WOULD BE THE SITE OF ANY ENERGETIC SOLAR
EVENT.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED ACTIVE
TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS DURING THE INTERVAL IF A CME-DRIVEN SHOCK,
RELATED TO ACTIVITY SEEN LATE ON 13 NOVEMBER, PASSES.
III. Event Probabilities 18 NOV to 20 NOV
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 NOV 094 Predicted 18 NOV-20 NOV 100/100/100 90 Day Mean 17 NOV 091
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 NOV 009/009 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 NOV 009/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 NOV-20 NOV 015/015-015/010-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 NOV to 20 NOV
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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