Viewing archive of Tuesday, 18 November 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Nov 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 322 Issued at 2200Z on 18 NOV 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8108 (N19E16)
GENERATED JUST B-CLASS EVENTS AS IT SIMPLIFIED MAGNETICALLY DURING
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE MIXED POLARITIES IN THE DOMINANT LEADER SPOT
HAVE WEAKENED SINCE YESTERDAY, RESULTING IN RELAXED GRADIENTS. THE
REGION NUMBERS APPROXIMATELY 35 SPOTS AND MEASURES 350 MILLIONTHS IN
WHITE LIGHT AREA. NEWLY ASSIGNED REGION 8110 (N27E54) EMERGED AS A
SINGLE SPOT WITH LITTLE PLAGE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGION 8108 RETAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR C AND M-CLASS
FLARES.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET. ONE SHORT-LIVED PERIOD
OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS OCCURRED FROM 1200-1500Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF ACTIVE CONDITIONS DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIMES.
III. Event Probabilities 19 NOV to 21 NOV
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 NOV 092 Predicted 19 NOV-21 NOV 095/095/095 90 Day Mean 18 NOV 091
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 17 NOV 009/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 NOV 008/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 NOV-21 NOV 015/010-015/015-015/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 NOV to 21 NOV
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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