Viewing archive of Wednesday, 19 November 1997

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Nov 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 323 Issued at 2200Z on 19 NOV 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8108 (N19E03) PRODUCED A LONG-DURATION C1 X-RAY EVENT, BEGINNING ABOUT 1700Z AND STILL IN PROGRESS. THE EXTENDED MAXIMUM OF THE FLARE WAS CENTERED AT 1910Z. MODEST RADIO BURSTS AT 245, 410 AND 606 MHZ ACCOMPANIED THE EVENT. THE REGION IS STILL MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX, WITH A SLIGHT MIXTURE OF POLARITIES EXISTING IN THE MAIN LEADER SPOT. LITTLE ELSE OF SIGNIFICANCE ON THE VISIBLE DISK OCCURRED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. HOWEVER, THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF AN M-CLASS FLARE FROM REGION 8108 IF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OCCURS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. A HIGH SPEED STREAM IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN ACTIVITY AT THIS LEVEL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 20 NOV to 22 NOV
Class M25%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 NOV 099
  Predicted   20 NOV-22 NOV  095/095/095
  90 Day Mean        19 NOV 091
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 NOV  011/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 NOV  003/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 NOV-22 NOV  015/015-015/018-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 NOV to 22 NOV
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%40%40%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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