Viewing archive of Thursday, 23 October 1997

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Oct 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 296 Issued at 2200Z on 23 OCT 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THE VISIBLE DISK IS CURRENTLY SPOTLESS. A 12 DEGREE LONG, 1/2 DEGREE WIDE NORMAL DENSITY FILAMENT DISAPPEARED DURING THE INTERVAL 23/1211-1332Z FROM THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE FILAMENT FIRST SHOWED STRONG LINEAR CHANGE, AND THEN BEGAN LOSING MASS QUICKLY IN AN ERUPTIVE MANNER, WITH AN APPARENT EJECTION OF MATERIAL TRANSITING ALONG A 90 DEGREE RADIAL.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH ACTIVITY INCREASING TO UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE ON DAY TWO, AND ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM ON DAY THREE. THIS ANTICIPATED DISTURBANCE IS IN RESPONSE TO THE LONG DURATION C3 X-RAY AND ASSOCIATED HALO CME EVENT ON 21 OCTOBER.
III. Event Probabilities 24 OCT to 26 OCT
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 OCT 080
  Predicted   24 OCT-26 OCT  079/078/078
  90 Day Mean        23 OCT 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 22 OCT  007/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 OCT  006/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 OCT-26 OCT  015/020-025/030-030/035
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 OCT to 26 OCT
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%35%40%
Minor storm05%20%30%
Major-severe storm01%05%15%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%40%45%
Minor storm10%25%35%
Major-severe storm05%10%15%

All times in UTC

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