Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Thursday, 20 November 1997

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Nov 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 324 Issued at 2200Z on 20 NOV 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8108 (N19W11) APPEARED TO SIMPLIFY AND DECAY DURING THE PERIOD, AND PRODUCED VERY LITTLE FLARE ACTIVITY. THE REGION CONSISTS OF APPROXIMATELY 30 SPOTS, WITH SOME MIXTURE OF MAGNETIC POLARITIES. IT MEASURES 260 MILLIONTHS IN WHITE LIGHT AREA. THE OTHER SPOTTED REGION VISIBLE, 8109 (S19E11) WAS QUIET AND STABLE.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. WATCH REGION 8108 FOR C-CLASS FLARES AND, IF SOME RENEWED FLUX EMERGENCE OCCURS, AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. EFFECTS OF THE HALO CME ON NOVEMBER 17 ARE STILL POSSIBLE, AND THE LONG-DURATION C1 FLARE ON NOVEMBER 19 FROM DISK CENTER MAY BE INDICATIVE OF ANOTHER CME. THE SECOND CME IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FIELD ON NOVEMBER 23.

III. Event Probabilities 21 NOV to 23 NOV

Class M	20%	20%	20%
Class X	05%	05%	05%
Proton	05%	05%	05%
PCAF	GREEN

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       20 NOV 089
  Predicted   21 NOV-23 NOV  090/090/090
  90 Day Mean        20 NOV 091

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

OBSERVED AFR/AP 19 NOV  004/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 NOV  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 NOV-23 NOV  015/015-015/015-020/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 NOV to 23 NOV

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	30%	30%	40%
Minor storm	10%	10%	15%
Major-severe storm	05%	05%	05%

B. High Latitudes
Active	40%	40%	50%
Minor storm	15%	15%	25%
Major-severe storm	05%	05%	05%

All times in UTC

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G2 - Moderate geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 6
Threshold reached: 22:29 UTC

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Tórshavn
Oulu
Reykjavik
Trondheim
Luleå, Umeå

The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (598.7 km/sec.)

The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is high (22.55nT), the direction is North (13.06nT).

The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-68nT)

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