Viewing archive of Friday, 21 November 1997

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Nov 21 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 325 Issued at 2200Z on 21 NOV 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8108 (N19W21) PRODUCED SEVERAL LOW C-CLASS SUBFLARES. DURING THE PERIOD, THIS REGION, GREW SLIGHTLY AND A MAGNETIC DELTA CONFIGURATION FORMED IN THE LEADER. PREVIOUS MIXED POLARITIES REMAINED. SPACE-BASED IMAGERS SHOWED A BROAD AREA OF EMISSION OVER THE SOUTHEAST LIMB WHERE OLD REGION 8100 IS DUE TO RETURN.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE GENERALLY LOW. REGION 8108 HAS THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS. OLD REGION 8100 IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS ACTIVE AS LAST ROTATION BUT UNTIL BETTER VIEWED, IT MUST BE CONSIDERED A CANDIDATE FOR ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES. RECENT SOLAR WIND DATA SHOW A VERY SLOW FLOW IN THE EARTH'S NEIGHBORHOOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS FORECAST TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ISOLATED MINOR STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON 23 NOV FROM A VERY LONG DURATION X-RAY EVENT OBSERVED NEAR CENTRAL MERIDIAN ON 19 NOV.
III. Event Probabilities 22 NOV to 24 NOV
Class M40%40%40%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 NOV 096
  Predicted   22 NOV-24 NOV  103/108/110
  90 Day Mean        21 NOV 092
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 20 NOV  002/002
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 21 NOV  003/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 22 NOV-24 NOV  015/015-020/020-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 NOV to 24 NOV
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%35%30%
Minor storm10%20%10%
Major-severe storm05%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%40%35%
Minor storm15%25%15%
Major-severe storm05%15%05%

All times in UTC

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