Viewing archive of Thursday, 18 December 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Dec 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 352 Issued at 2200Z on 18 DEC 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8123 (N19E06) IS
THE ONLY SUNSPOT REGION ON THE DISK AND HAS BEEN QUIET.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE. ACTIVE CONDITIONS
WERE EXPERIENCED AT MANY LOCATIONS DURING THE 18/0300-0600Z PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 19 DEC to 21 DEC
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 DEC 086 Predicted 19 DEC-21 DEC 084/084/084 90 Day Mean 18 DEC 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 17 DEC 004/003 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 DEC 007/006 PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 DEC-21 DEC 010/010-010/015-010/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 DEC to 21 DEC
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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