Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Sunday, 16 November 1997

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Nov 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 320 Issued at 2200Z on 16 NOV 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8108 (N21E42) PRODUCED AN M1/1N TENFLARE AT 15/2246Z. REGION 8108 ALSO PRODUCED A SMALL C1/SF FLARE AT 16/0125Z. THIS REGION HAS DECREASED IN OVERALL SIZE BUT HAS INCREASED ITS NUMBER OF SPOTS. IT IS NOW AN EAI SPOT GROUP WITH A COMPLEX MAGNETIC CLASSIFICATION. TWO UNCORRELATED C-CLASS X-RAY BURSTS WERE ALSO DETECTED AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. NEW REGION 8109 (S18E66), A SINGLE HRX SPOT SO FAR, WAS NUMBERED TODAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE RETURNING REGION 8101.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. REGION 8108 HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF C-CLASS ACTIVITY AND A CHANCE OF ISOLATED M-CLASS ACTIVITY.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT ALL LATITUDES.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THEN BECOME MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH LATITUDES MAY EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF ACTIVE LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. SLIGHTLY INCREASED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AS A RESULT OF THE OBSERVED CORONAL MASS EJECTION OF THE EAST SOLAR LIMB TWO DAYS AGO.

III. Event Probabilities 17 NOV to 19 NOV

Class M	10%	10%	10%
Class X	01%	01%	01%
Proton	01%	01%	01%
PCAF	GREEN

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       16 NOV 096
  Predicted   17 NOV-19 NOV  098/098/096
  90 Day Mean        16 NOV 091

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 NOV  010/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 NOV  009/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 NOV-19 NOV  010/010-015/015-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 NOV to 19 NOV

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	15%	20%	15%
Minor storm	05%	05%	05%
Major-severe storm	05%	05%	05%

B. High Latitudes
Active	15%	20%	15%
Minor storm	05%	10%	05%
Major-severe storm	05%	05%	05%

All times in UTC

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