Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Saturday, 8 November 1997

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Nov 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 312 Issued at 2200Z on 08 NOV 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. ONLY A FEW SMALL FLARES WERE OBSERVED SINCE YESTERDAY, NONE OF WHICH WERE ABOVE C1 LEVEL. REGION 8100 (S20W90) IS AT THE WESTERN SOLAR LIMB AND APPEARS TO BE DEPARTING QUIETLY. REGION 8103 (N23W42) HAS SLOWED GROWTH AS A SMALL C-CLASS SUNSPOT GROUP. REGION 8105 (S35E21) WAS NUMBERED.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. C-CLASS FLARES ARE POSSIBLE. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF AN M-CLASS FLARE FROM REGION 8100 AS IT DEPARTS THE VISIBLE DISK.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 100 MEV PROTON EVENT HAS ENDED [START: 06/1245Z, PEAK: 06/1640Z (51 PFU), END: 08/0250Z]. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON EVENT REMAINS IN PROGRESS [START: 06/1305Z, PEAK: 07/0250Z (490 PFU), CURRENT (08/2100Z) FLUX 18 PFU]. THE PCA EVENT HAS ENDED [START: 06/1400Z AND END: 08/1100Z]. THE LIMITED AVAILABLE SOLAR WIND DATA DOES NOT YET SHOW EVIDENCE OF A SHOCK PASSAGE FROM THE 06 NOV X9/2B FLARE.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINATELY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. IF AN INTERPLANETARY SHOCK ARRIVES AT THE EARTH FROM THE 6 NOV X9/2B FLARE AND ASSOCIATED CME, THEN GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY LEVELS MAY INTENSIFY BRIEFLY. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON EVENT SHOULD END TOMORROW.

III. Event Probabilities 09 NOV to 11 NOV

Class M	10%	01%	01%
Class X	01%	01%	01%
Proton	01%	01%	01%
PCAF	GREEN

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       08 NOV 090
  Predicted   09 NOV-11 NOV  085/080/080
  90 Day Mean        08 NOV 090

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

OBSERVED AFR/AP 07 NOV  028/045
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 NOV  005/007
PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 NOV-11 NOV  015/030-010/012-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 NOV to 11 NOV

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	20%	10%	10%
Minor storm	10%	05%	05%
Major-severe storm	05%	01%	01%

B. High Latitudes
Active	20%	10%	10%
Minor storm	10%	05%	05%
Major-severe storm	05%	01%	01%

All times in UTC

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