Viewing archive of Friday, 5 December 1997

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Dec 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 339 Issued at 2200Z on 05 DEC 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8113 (N20W42) CONTINUES TO DECAY PRODUCING JUST ONE SUBFLARE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THE REGION NOW CONSISTS OF APPROXIMATELY 12 SPOTS MEASURING 330 MILLIONTHS IN WHITE LIGHT AREA. NEW REGIONS 8115 (N33W19), A 4 SPOT BXO SPOT GROUP, AND 8116 (N24E43), A SINGLE AXX SPOT, WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW TO LOW. REGION 8113 STILL HAS POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE C-CLASS FLARES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR M-CLASS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET WITH INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF UNSETTLED ACTIVITY IN THE HIGH LATITUDES.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH LATITUDES WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE SOME INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF UNSETTLED ACTIVITY.
III. Event Probabilities 06 DEC to 08 DEC
Class M20%20%10%
Class X05%05%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 DEC 104
  Predicted   06 DEC-08 DEC  102/100/098
  90 Day Mean        05 DEC 095
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 DEC  004/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 DEC  007/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 DEC-08 DEC  005/008-005/008-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 DEC to 08 DEC
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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