Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Thursday, 15 January 1998

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Jan 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 015 Issued at 2200Z on 15 JAN 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8131 (S23W35) PRODUCED AN M1/1F FLARE AT 15/1438Z, A C6.8/SF FLARE AT 15/0936, A C1/SF FLARE AT 15/1312Z, AND A C1/SF FLARE AT 15/1949Z. THIS REGION ALMOST DOUBLED IN SIZE IN THE PAST 24 HOURS AND IS NOW AN EAI SPOT GROUP. REGION 8135 (S16E43), THE ONLY OTHER SPOTTED REGION ON THE VISIBLE DISK, HAS REMAINED SMALL, STABLE, AND QUIET. TWO UNCORELATED C1 XRAY BURSTS WERE ALSO DETECTED TODAY.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW TO MODERATE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. REGION 8131 HAS A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED C-CLASS ACTIVITY AND A FAIR CHANCE OF PRODUCING ONE OR MORE ISOLATE M-CLASS FLARES. THIS REGION ALSO HAS A SMALL CHANCE OF PRODUCING X-CLASS ACTIVITY. SPACE-BASED XRAY IMAGERS INDICATE AT LEAST TWO OTHER POTENTIAL FLARES SOUCES ARE ABOUT TO ENTER THE VISIBLE DISK ON THE EAST LIMB.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET AT ALL LATITUTDES.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THEN SETTLE DOWN TO QUIET LEVELS. HIGH LATITUDE STATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE LEVELS DURING THE FIRST WO DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

III. Event Probabilities 16 JAN to 18 JAN

Class M	25%	25%	25%
Class X	05%	05%	05%
Proton	01%	01%	01%
PCAF	GREEN

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       15 JAN 098
  Predicted   16 JAN-18 JAN  100/102/102
  90 Day Mean        15 JAN 095

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 JAN  003/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 JAN  004/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 JAN-18 JAN  015/010-010/010-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 JAN to 18 JAN

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	15%	15%	10%
Minor storm	10%	10%	05%
Major-severe storm	01%	01%	01%

B. High Latitudes
Active	15%	15%	10%
Minor storm	15%	15%	05%
Major-severe storm	01%	01%	01%

All times in UTC

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