Viewing archive of Friday, 16 January 1998
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Jan 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
: : : : : CORRECTED COPY : : : : : SDF Number 016 Issued at 2200Z on 16 JAN 1998IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. SEVERAL B-CLASS X-RAY
FLARES OCCURRED. GROWTH IN REGION 8131 (S24W49) SLOWED CONSIDERABLY
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THE REGION HAS STABILIZED BUT MAINTAINS A
RELATIVELY COMPLEX MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION. NEW REGIONS 8136
(N15W24), 8137 (S16E10), AND 8138 (S44W49) WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
REGION 8136 IS THE MOST IMPRESSIVE OF THE THREE NEW REGIONS,
DEVELOPING QUICKLY INTO A 10 SPOT CRO GROUP.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. THOUGH MOSTLY STABLE FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS, REGION 8131
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE MORE C-CLASS FLARES AND HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ISOLATED M-CLASS. C-CLASS FLARING IS ALSO POSSIBLE FROM NEW REGION
8136.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN THE HIGH LATITUDES.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGH TOMORROW. EXPECT QUIET
CONDITIONS ON DAYS TWO AND THREE.
III. Event Probabilities 17 JAN to 19 JAN
| Class M | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 JAN 098 Predicted 17 JAN-19 JAN 098/102/106 90 Day Mean 16 JAN 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 JAN 002/003 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 JAN 006/007 PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 JAN-19 JAN 010/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 JAN to 19 JAN
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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