Viewing archive of Saturday, 17 January 1998

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1998 Jan 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 017 Issued at 2200Z on 17 JAN 1998

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8131 (S23W61) PRODUCED A SUBFLARE AT 17/0112Z AND AGAIN AT 17/0159Z BUT HAS BEEN QUIET SINCE. THIS REGION EXHIBITED CONSIDERABLE DECAY OVER THE PAST 24-48 HOURS AND NOW CONSISTS OF 10 SPOTS MEASURING 260 MILLIONTHS IN WHITE LIGHT AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NOTED IN THE REMAINING REGIONS. NEW REGION 8139 (N14E37), A THREE SPOT AXX GROUP, WAS NUMBERED TODAY. SPACE-BASED IMAGES SHOW ENHANCED EMISSIONS ON THE SOUTHEAST LIMB. THIS IS THE PROBABLE SOURCE REGION OF A PROMINENCE ERUPTION EARLY IN THE PERIOD. NO APPARENT CORRELATED ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED WITH THIS EVENT.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW TO LOW. REGION 8131 APPEARS TO BE THE ONLY THREAT FOR C-CLASS ACTIVITY AND MAINTAINS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF PRODUCING AN M-CLASS FLARE.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET. HIGH LATITUDES EXPERIENCED SOME INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF UNSETTLED ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET.
III. Event Probabilities 18 JAN to 20 JAN
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 JAN 096
  Predicted   18 JAN-20 JAN  096/098/100
  90 Day Mean        17 JAN 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 JAN  005/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 JAN  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 JAN-20 JAN  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 JAN to 20 JAN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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